As most people know or should know, the Oscars are an industry phenomenon--predominantly by, from, about and for the multibillion motion picture industry. Tactics and results are parallel to the labyrinth of lobbyists, influence peddling, block voting, and horse trading that make people hold their noses when they watch Congress in action (or inaction). As a Columbia University trained journalist and professional writer and a film devotee, I've been compiling my own private list of the films and the people I believe should win the Oscars and would win Academy Awards in a more perfect world.
This list makes no attempt to predict who, in fact, actually will win but it's safe to say there is almost no correlation--especially for the films of 2009--between "should" and "will." My tastes and this list are tilted far more toward independents and brave, often little noticed "foreign" films (I prefer to think of them as movies without borders) than anything the industry that is Hollywood would ever sanction.